Uncertain Future of the EU: The Role of Reflexive Anticipations



The point of the European integration process has been to channel the multiple and often conflictual European pasts into converging presents. For a short while, the euro may have contributed to this aim, but since 2008 we have been witnessing the deepening of several existing divisions. Why is this happening? First the global financial crisis caused a slump. Subsequently, the effects of austerity during the euro crisis resulted in greater rather than smaller divergences in economic and social outcomes. Causation is often cumulative and many processes are self-reinforcing. The widening of divergences has continued during the semi-recovery of 2015-18.



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